Publications (peer-reviewed)

  1. Marshall, K.N., J. Duffy-Anderson, E.J. Ward, S.C. Anderson, M.E. Hunsicker, and B.C. Williams. 2019. Long-term trends in ichthyoplankton assemblage structure, biodiversity, and synchrony in the Gulf of Alaska and their relationships to ocean conditions. Progress in Oceanography, 170:134-145. link

  2. Ward, E.J., H. Delgado-Nordmann, R. Brenner, A.H Beaudreau, S.D. Moffitt, A.O Shelton. 2019. Assessing long-term changes in sex ratios of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Fisheries Research, 211:300-308. link

  3. Stock, B.C., E.J. Ward, T. Eguchi, J.E. Jannot, J.T. Thorson, B.E. Feist, and B.X. Semmens. Comparing predictions of fisheries bycatch using multiple spatiotemporal species distribution model frameworks. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, in press.

  4. Stock, B.C., E.J. Ward, J.T. Thorson, J.E. Jannot, and B.X. Semmens. 2019. The utility of spatial model-based estimators of unobserved bycatch, ICES Journal of Marine Science, 76:255–267. link

  5. J. Ohlberger, E.J. Ward, D.E. Schindler and B. Lewis. 2018. Demographic changes in Chinook salmon across the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Fish and Fisheries, 19(3):533-546. link

  6. E.J. Ward, S.C. Anderson, A.O. Shelton, R.E. Brenner, M.D. Adkison, A.H. Beaudreau, J.T. Watson, J.C. Shriver, A.C. Haynie, and B.C. Wiliams. 2018. Effects of increased specialization on revenue of Alaskan salmon fishers over four decades. Journal of Applied Ecology, 55:1082-1091. link

  7. Ford, M.J., K.M. Parsons, E.J. Ward, J.A. Hempelmann, C.K. Emmons, M.B. Hanson, K.C. Balcomb, and L.K. Park. Inbreeding in an endangered killer whale population. Animal Conservation, 21:423-432. link

  8. Ward, E.J., K.L. Oken, K.A. Rose, S. Sable, K. Watkins, E.E. Holmes, and M.D. Scheuerell. Applying spatiotemporal models to monitoring data to quantify fish population responses to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 190(9):530. link

  9. Anderson, S.C., and E.J. Ward. In press. Black swans in space: modelling spatiotemporal processes with extremes. Ecology, 100(1):e02403 link

  10. Stock, B.C., A.L. Jackson, E.J. Ward, A.C. Parnell, D.L. Phillips, and B.X. Semmens. Analyzing mixing systems using a new generation of Bayesian tracer mixing models. Peer J, 6:e5096. link

  11. Bal, G., M.D. Scheuerell, and E.J. Ward. Characterizing the strength of density dependence in at-risk species through Bayesian model averaging. Ecological Modelling, 381:1-9. link

  12. Shelton, A.O., W.H. Satterthwaite, E.J. Ward, B.E. Feist, and B.J. Burke. 2018. Using hierarchical models to estimate stock-specific and seasonal variation in ocean distribution, survivorship, and aggregate abundance of fall run chinook salmon. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 76:95-108. link

  13. Shelton, A.O., M.E. Hunsicker, E.J. Ward, B.E. Feist, R. Blake, C.L. Ward, B.C. Williams, J.T. Duffy-Anderson, A.B. Hollowed, A.C. Haynie. 2018. Spatio-temporal models reveal subtle changes to demersal communities following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 75:287-297. link

  14. Chasco, B.E., I.C. Kaplan, A.C. Thomas, A. Acevedo-Gutiérrez, D.P. Noren, M.J. Ford, M.B. Hanson, J. Scordino, S. Jeffries, K.N. Marshall, A.O. Shelton, C. Matkin, B. Burke, and E.J. Ward. Competing tradeoffs between increasing marine mammal predation and fisheries harvest of Chinook salmon. Scientific Reports, 7:15439. link

  15. Deacy, W.W., J.B. Armstrong, W.B Leacock, C. Robbins, D.D. Gustine, E.J. Ward, J.A. Erlenbach, J.A. Stanford. 2017. Phenological synchronization disrupts a keystone trophic interaction between Kodiak brown bears and salmon. PNAS, 114(39): 10432–10437. link

  16. Anderson, S.C., E.J. Ward, A.O. Shelton, M.D. Adkison, A.H. Beaudreau, R.E. Brenner, A.C. Haynie, J.C. Shriver, J.T. Watson, and B.C. Williams. Benefits and risks of diversification for individual fishers. PNAS, 114(40): 10797–10802. link

  17. Linder, H, J.K. Horne, and E.J. Ward. 2017. Modeling baseline conditions of ecological indicators: marine renewable energy environmental monitoring ecological indicators. Ecological Indicators, 83:178-191. link

  18. Ward, E.J., M. Adkison, J. Couture, S.C. Dressel, M.A. Litzow, S. Moffitt, T. Hoem Neher, J. Trochta, and R. Brenner. 2017. Evaluating signals of oil spill impacts, climate, and species interactions in Pacific herring and Pacific salmon populations in Prince William Sound and Copper River, Alaska. PLOS ONE, 12(3): e0172898.

  19. Hussey, N., J. DiBattista, J. Moore, E.J. Ward, A. Fisk, S. Kessel, T. Guttridge, K. Feldheim, B. Franks, S. Gruber, O. Weideli, and D. Chapman. 2017. Risky business for a marine predator? Testing the influence of foraging strategies on size and growth rate under natural conditions. Proceedings of the Royal Societety Series B, 284(1852): 20170166.

  20. Chasco, B., I.C. Kaplan, A. Thomas, A. Acevedo-Gutiérrez, D.P. Noren, M.J. Ford, M.B. Hanson, J. Scordino, S.J. Jeffries, S.F. Pearson, K.N. Marshall, and E.J. Ward. 2017. Estimates of Chinook salmon consumption in Washingon State inland waters by four marine mammal predators from 1970 – 2015. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 74: 1173-1194.

  21. Moriarty, P., T.E. Essington, and E.J. Ward. 2017. A novel method to estimate prey contributions to predator diets. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 74: 168-177. link

  22. Armstrong, J.B., E.J. Ward, D.E. Schindler, and P.J. Lisi. 2016. Adaptive capacity at the northern front: sockeye salmon behaviorally thermoregulate during novel exposure to warm temperatures. Conservation Physiology, 4(1): cow039. link

  23. Boyd, C., D.P. DeMaster, R.S. Waples, E.J. Ward, and B.L. Taylor. 2016. Consistent Extinction Risk Assessment under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation Letters, 10(3): 328-336. link

  24. Stier, A.C., J.F. Samhouri, M. Novak, K.N. Marshall, E.J. Ward, R.D. Holt, and P.S. Levin. Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries. Science Advances, 5(2): e1501769. link

  25. Adams, J.B., I.C. Kaplan, B. Chasco, K.N. Marshall, A. Acevedo-Gutiérrez, and E.J. Ward. 2016. A century of Chinook salmon consumption by marine mammal predators in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Ecological Informatics, 34: 44-51. link

  26. Thorson, J.T., M.L. Pinsky, and E.J. Ward. 2016. Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied, and center of gravity. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7: 990-1002. link

  27. Jorgensen, J.C., E.J. Ward, M.D. Scheuerell, and R.W. Zabel. 2016. Assessing spatial covariance among time series of abundance. Ecology and Evolution, 6: 2472–2485. link

  28. Ward, E.J., M.E. Dahlheim, J.M. Waite, C.K. Emmons, K.N. Marshall, B.E. Chasco, K.C. Balcomb III. 2016. Long distance migration of prey synchronizes demographic rates of top predators across broad spatial scales. Ecosphere, 7(2): e01276. link

  29. Ono, K., A.O. Shelton, E.J. Ward, J.T. Thorson, B.E. Feist, and R. Hilborn. 2016. Space-time investigation of the effects of fishing on fish populations. Ecological Applications, 26(2): 392-406. link

  30. Marshall, K.N., A.C. Stier, J.F. Samhouri, R.P. Kelly, and E.J. Ward. 2016. Conservation challenges of predator recovery. Conservation Letters, 9: 70-78. link

  31. Galloway, A.W.E., M.T. Brett, G.W. Holtgrieve, E.J. Ward, A.P. Ballantyne, C.W. Burns, M.J. Kainz, D.C. Muller-Navarra, J. Persson, J.L. Ravet, U. Strandberg, S.J. Taipale. 2015. A Fatty acid based Bayesian approach for inferring diet in aquatic consumers. PLoS ONE, 10(6): e0129723. link

  32. P.A.H. Westley, A.H. Dittman, E.J. Ward, and T. Quinn. 2015. Signals of climate, conspecific density, and watershed features in patterns of homing and dispersal by Pacific salmon. Ecology, 96: 2823–2833. link

  33. Ward, E.J., Y.W. Lee, K. Ono, A.O. Shelton, and J.T. Thorson. 2015. Using spatiotemporal species distribution models to identify temporally evolving hotspots of species co-occurrence. Ecological Applications, 25: 2198-2209. link

  34. Bjorkland, R.K., S. Pearson, S. Jeffries, M. Lance, A. Acevedo-Gutierrez, and E.J. Ward. 2015. Stable isotope mixing models elucidate sex and size effects on the diet of a generalist marine predator. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 526: 213-225. link

  35. Ward, E.J., J.H. Anderson, T.J. Beechie, G.R. Pess, and M.J. Ford. 2015. Increasing hydrologic variability threatens depleted anadromous fish populations. Global Change Biology, 21: 2500-2509. link

  36. Sergeant, C.J., J.B. Armstrong, and E.J. Ward. 2015. Predator-prey migration phenologies remain synchronised in a warming catchment. Freshwater Biology, 60: 724-732. link

  37. Thorson, J.T., A.O. Shelton, E.J. Ward, and H. Skaug. 2015. Geostatistical delta-generalized linear mixed models improve precision for estimated abundance indices for West Coast groundfishes. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 72: 1297-1310. link

  38. Ward, E.J., K.N. Marshall, A. Sedgley, T. Ross, T. Hass, S.F. Pearson, G. Joyce, N.J. Hamel, P.J. Hodum, R. Faucett. 2015. Using citizen-science data to identify local hotspots of seabird occurrence. PeerJ, 2: e704. link

  39. Thorson, J.T., H. Skaug, K. Kristensen, A.O. Shelton, E.J. Ward, J. Harms, and J. Benante. 2015. The importance of spatial models for estimating the type and strength of density dependence. Ecology, 96: 1202–1212. link

  40. Thorson, J.T., J.M. Cope, K.M. Kleisner, J.F. Samhouri, A.O. Shelton, and E.J. Ward. 2015. Giants’ shoulders 15 years later: Lessons, challenges, and guidelines in fisheries meta-analysis. Fish and Fisheries, 16: 342-361. link

  41. Phillips, D.L., R. Inger, S. Bearhop, A.L. Jackson, J.W. Moore, A.C. Parnell, B.X. Semmens, and E.J. Ward. 2014. Best practices for use of stable isotope mixing models in food-web studies. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 92: 823-835. link

  42. Anlauf-Dunn, K., E.J. Ward, and M. Strickland. 2014. Habitat connectivity, complexity and quality: Predicting adult coho salmon occupancy and abundance. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 71: 1864-1876. link

  43. Chasco, B., E.J. Ward, C. Rabe, R. Orme, R. Kinzer, J. Vogel, J. Hesse, P. Kucera. 2014. Evaluating the accuracy and precision of multiple abundance estimators using state-space models: a case study for a threatened population of Chinook salmon in Johnson Creek, Idaho. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 34(5): 945-954. link

  44. Shelton, A.O., J.T. Thorson, E.J. Ward, and B.E. Feist. 2014. Spatial semi-parametric models improve estimates of species abundance and distribution. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 71: 1655-1666. link

  45. Ward, E.J., E.E. Holmes, J.T. Thorson, and B. Collen. 2014. Complexity is costly: a meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting. Oikos, 123(6): 652-661. Selected for Editor’s Choice June 2014. link

  46. J.T. Thorson and E.J. Ward. 2014. Accounting for vessel effects when standardizing catch rates from cooperative surveys. Fisheries Research, 155: 168-176. link

  47. Nosrati, K., G. Govers, B.X. Semmens, and E.J. Ward. 2014. A mixing model to incorporate uncertainty in sediment fingerprinting. Geoderma, 217/218: 173–180. link

  48. Bodey, T., E.J. Ward, R.A. Phillips, R.A.R. McGill, and S. Bearhop. 2014. Species versus guild level differentiation revealed across the annual cycle by isotopic niche examination. Journal of Animal Ecology, 83: 470-478. link

  49. Hampton, S.E., E.E. Holmes, D.E. Pendleton, L.P. Scheef, M.D. Scheuerell, and E.J. Ward. 2013. Quantifying effects of abiotic and biotic drivers on community dynamics with multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models. Ecology, 94(12): 2663–2669. Recommended by Faculty of 1000 Biology link

  50. B.X. Semmens, E.J. Ward, A.C. Parnell, D.L. Phillips, S. Bearhop, R. Inger, A.L. Jackson, and J.W. Moore. 2013. Statistical basis and outputs of stable isotope mixing models: Comment on Fry 2013. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 490: 285-289. link

  51. M.B. Hanson, C. Emmons, E.J. Ward, J. Nystuen, and M. Lammers. 2013. Assessing the coastal occurrence of endangered killer whales using autonomous passive acoustic recorders. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 134(5): 3486-3495. link

  52. Parnell, A.C., D.L. Phillips, S. Bearhop, A.L. Jackson, B.X. Semmens, E.J. Ward, J.W. Moore, and R.L. Inger. 2013. Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models. Environmetrics, 24(6): 387-399. link

  53. Thorson, J.T. and E.J. Ward. 2013. Accounting for space-time interactions in index standardization models. Fisheries Research, 147: 426-433. link

  54. Holtgrieve, G.W., M.E. Arias, K.N. Irvine, E.J. Ward, M. Kummu, J. Koponen, and J.E. Richey. 2013. Patterns of ecosystem metabolism in the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia with links to capture fisheries. PLoS One, 8(8):e71395, 1-11. link

  55. Van Daele, M.B., B.X. Semmens, E.J. Ward, L.J. Van Daele, W.B. Leacock, C.T. Robbins. 2013. Salmon consumption by Kodiak brown bears (Ursus arctos middendorffi) with ecosystem management implications. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 91: 164-174. link

  56. Westley, P., E.J. Ward, and I. Fleming. 2013. Fine-scale local adaptation in an invasive freshwater fish has evolved in contemporary time. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B., 280(751). link

  57. Ward, E.J., G.R. Pess, K. Anlauf-Dunn, and C.E. Jordan. 2012. Applying time series models with spatial correlation to identify the scale of variation in habitat metrics related to threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 69(11): 1773-1782. link

  58. Ward, E.J., P.S. Levin, M.M. Lance, S.J. Jeffries, and A. Acevedo-Gutiérrez. 2012. Integrating diet and movement data to identify hot spots of predation risk and areas of conservation concern for endangered species. Conservation Letters, 5(1): 27-37 dpi: 10.1111/j.1755- 263X.2011.00210.x. link

  59. Holmes, E.E., E.J. Ward, and K. Wills. 2012. MARSS: multivariate autoregressive state-space models for analyzing time series data. R Journal, 4(1): 11-19. link

  60. Pattengill-Semmens, C.V., B.X. Semmens, E.E. Holmes, E.J. Ward, and B.I. Ruttenberg. Integrating time-series of community monitoring data. Proceedings of the 63rd Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute, 214-216. link

  61. Holtgrieve, G., D.E. Schindler, W.O. Hobbs, P.R. Leavitt, E.J. Ward, L. Bunting, G. Chen, B.P. Finney, I. Gregory-Eaves, S. Holmgren, M.J. Lisac, P.J. Lisi, K. Nydick, L.A. Rogers, J.E. Saros, D.T. Selbie, M.D. Shapley, P.B. Walsh, and A.P. Wolfe. 2011. A coherent signature of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition to remote watersheds of the Northern Hemisphere. Science, 16: 1545-1548. doi: 10.1126/science.1212267. link

  62. Yeakel, J.D., M. Novak, P.R. Guimarães Jr., N.J. Dominy, P.L. Koch, E.J. Ward, J.W. Moore, and B.X. Semmens. 2011. Merging resource availability with isotope mixing models: the role of neutral interaction assumptions. PLoS ONE, 6(7): e22015. link

  63. Anderson, J., E.J. Ward, and S.M. Carlson. 2011. A model for estimating the minimum number of offspring to sample in studies of reproductive success. Journal of Heredity, 102(5): 567-576. link

  64. Berntson, E.A., R.W. Carmichael, M.W. Flesher, E.J. Ward, and P. Moran. 2011. Diminished reproductive success of steelhead from a hatchery supplementation program (Little Sheep Creek, Imnaha Basin, Oregon). Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 140(3): 685-698. link

  65. Francis, T.B., D.E. Schindler, G.W. Holtgrieve, E. Larson, M.D. Scheuerell, B.X. Semmens, and E.J. Ward. 2011. Habitat structure determines resource use by zooplankton in temperate lakes. Ecology Letters, 14: 364-372. link

  66. Ward, E.J., Semmens, B.X., Phillips, D.L., Moore, J.W., and Bouwes, N. 2011. A quantitative approach to combine sources in stable isotope mixing models. Ecosphere, 2(2):art19. link joint 1st authorship

  67. Ward, E.J., Semmens, B.X., Holmes, E.E., and K.C. Balcomb. 2011. Effects of multiple levels of social organization on survival and abundance. Conservation Biology, 25(2): 350-355. link

  68. Ward, E.J., Zerbini, A.N., Engel, M.E., Kinas, P.G. and Andriolo, A. 2011. Estimates of population growth rates of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the wintering grounds off the coast of Brazil (Breeding Stock A). J. Cet Res. Manage. (Special Issue), 3: 145-149.

  69. Zerbini, A.N., E.J. Ward, Engel, M.E., Kinas, P.G. and Andriolo, A. 2009. A Bayesian assessment of the conservation status of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Western South Atlantic (Breeding Stock A). J. Cet Res. Manage., SC/58/SH02.

  70. Ward, E.J., B.X. Semmens, and D.E. Schindler. 2010. Including source uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of stable isotope mixing models. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(12): 4645-4650. link

  71. Williamson, K.S., A.R. Murdoch, T.N. Pearsons, E.J. Ward, and M.J. Ford. 2010. Factors influencing the relative fitness of hatchery and wild spring Chinook salmon in the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 67: 1840-1851. link

  72. Warren, D.R., M.M. Mineau, E.J. Ward, and C.E. Kraft. 2010. Relating fish biomass to habitat and chemistry in headwater streams of the northeastern United States. Environmental Biology of Fishes, 88: 51-62. link

  73. Ward, E.J., H. Chirrakal, M. González-Suárez, D. Aurioles-Gamboa, E.E. Holmes, L. Gerber. 2010. Applying Multivariate state-space models to detect spatial clustering of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Journal of Applied Ecology, 47: 47-56. Recommended by Faculty of 1000 Biology link

  74. Semmens, B.X., E.J. Ward, J.W. Moore, and C.T. Darimont. 2009. Quantifying inter- and intra-population niche variability using hierarchical Bayesian stable isotope mixing models. PLoS ONE, 4(7): e6187. joint 1st authorship link

  75. Ward, E.J., E.E. Holmes, and K.C. Balcomb. 2009. Quantifying the effects of prey abundance on killer whale reproduction. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46(3): 632-640. link

  76. Semmens, B.X., J. Moore, and E.J. Ward. 2009. Improving Bayesian isotope mixing models: a response to Jackson et al. Ecology Letters, 12(3): E6-E8. link

  77. Ward, E.J., E.E. Holmes, K. Parsons, KC Balcomb, and JKB Ford. 2009. The role of menopause and reproductive senescence in a long-lived social mammal. Frontiers in Zoology, 6(4). link

  78. Ward, E.J. 2008. A review and comparison of four commonly used Bayesian and maximum likelihood model selection tools. Ecological Modelling, 211: 1-10. link

  79. Ward, E.J., R. Hilborn, R.G. Towell, and L. Gerber. 2007. A state-space mixture approach for estimating catastrophic events in time series data. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 64: 899-910. link

  80. Ward, E.J. 2006. A new BEAST: Bayesian software tools for ecological trend analysis. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 34: 1420-1424. link

  81. Branch, T., A. Haynie, R. Hilborn, G. Fay, L. Flynn, J. Griffiths, K. Marshall, J. Randall, J. Scheurell, E.J. Ward, and M. Young. 2006. Fleet dynamics and fishermen behavior: lessons for fisheries managers. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 63: 1647-1668. link

  82. Ward, E.J. 2005. Differences between fishery-dependent and fishery-independent estimates of single-species and mixed-species dolphin schools: implications for single-species stock assessments. Marine Mammal Science, 21: 189-203. link